It's undergrad level math. The reality: "Organic farming, just like other forms of agriculture, still uses pesticides and fungicides to prevent critters from destroying their crops," writes Scientific American's Christie Wilcox. Official Dream Sub-Reddit. because nowhere in the report he mentions that the requirements for binomial distribution are not met. Dublin Dream Homes: Fabulous Monkstown residence on sale for over €1 million. Dream then claims in the video that results od MST were wrong by 7.49.. trillion? Here's some things from the PDF that I thought were interesting: "That is, there is a 1 in 100 million chance that a livestream in the Minecraft speedrunning community got as lucky this year on two separate random modes as Dream did in these six streams. What is he trying to hide from us? But I wouldn’t immediately jump to the conclusion that Dream consulted a questionable statistician on purpose of maliciously. Realistically even if you take it as a single run as you mentioned, the last run still has to be accounted for the "stopping rule". use the following search parameters to narrow your results: This is a place where anybody can discuss Dream and his content, like as in the original subreddit, just without getting banned for talking about certain topics. The answer is negative binomial distribution for example. The correct way to analyze his runs would be to indeed take every single run and calculate the probability via negative binomial distribution. 14. You cant just take the number from the denominator... the actual odds are 1 in 7.5 trillion or 7.5-1*10-12 or 1/7.5 trillion, if you substract it from 1/7.4999 trillion or whatever you aren't getting 1 in 10 million (or whatever the number is), who even calculates odds difference like that? © 2021 reddit inc. All rights reserved. REDDIT and the ALIEN Logo are registered trademarks of reddit inc. π Rendered by PID 31755 on r2-app-05dd79278010f9cea at 2021-03-11 12:59:57.193308+00:00 running 267f178 country code: US. Really? 326 thoughts on “ Debunked And Well-Refuted ” Pingback: On examining evidences for points of view, etc | The Daily Pochemuchka Eli December 25, 2014 at 6:22 am. At least he apologized for his response and told the fans to not harass anyone. Posted by 2 months ago. [–]ProdigiousPlays 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children). ... evidence. I can’t imagine how Dream, a super famous YouTuber, ended up finding an anonymous unverifiable “expert” from such a bootleg and mysterious consulting group. Since Dream stops the trials whenever he gets the sought amount of drops it clearly means that he follows patter of "set number of successes/failures" thus you cannot use binomial distribution whatsoever. Dream went into full defense so mods had to pull out a 29- page manifesto. like i get that lying and acting suss is bad, but like im just confused can someone help me :), [–]Party_Operation7316[S] 8 points9 points10 points 2 months ago (1 child). It's just overall speedrunning thing that it has a big history of cheating (outside Minecraft mostly) and majority of submitted runs are very thoroughly checked. Since Dream stops the trials whenever he gets the sought amount of drops it clearly means that he follows patter of "set number of successes/failures" thus you cannot use binomial distribution whatsoever. Introduction “Reaper ‘indoctrination’ is an insidious means of corrupting organic minds, ‘reprogramming’ the brain through physical and psychological conditioning using electromagnetic fields, infrasonic and ultrasonic noise, and other subliminal methods. More like: Anonymous man whose credentials cannot be verified, that comes from an anonymous company, with an anonymous founder, is likely not credible. THEREFORE there is no way to verify that the "expert" is an actual expert, it might have as well been a fraud who just finished applied stats two semesters prior to writing that report (my bet). Dream's Response DEBUNKED (He Lied)Video Discussion (youtu.be), [–]Scoobydoofan234 7 points8 points9 points 2 months ago (2 children), [–]Spoodertube[S] 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (1 child), [–]Scoobydoofan234 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children), [–]SomeoneSomewhereTher 2 points3 points4 points 2 months ago (2 children), [–]Spoodertube[S] 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (1 child), [–]SomeoneSomewhereTher 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children). Or, if Dream sees this post, he's just going to drop these points because assuming Dream is actually gonna try to be good faith in his proper response. View 365 NSFW pictures and videos and enjoy DreamFuck with the endless random gallery on Scrolller.com. ... very unlikely. an in-depth look into Indoctrination Theory presented by /r/Indoctrinated. [–]Party_Operation7316[S] 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (3 children). 32 [r/statistics] debunked Dreams response, here is a breakdown of whats wrong with the Analysis: Close. I watched the video, went on the subreddit to see what everyone else thought, and immediately discovered that the video was bunk. I'm just not sure where the number jumped from ten times to one hundred times. Rendered by PID 14771 on r2-app-0652ba76c82df01b5 at 2021-03-11 12:59:56.031353+00:00 running 267f178 country code: HU. Didn’t watch any further, i heard the intro and just thought nope. Basically if they didn't do anything about Dream's run then anyone else could also edit the odds and start speedrunning, or Dream himself can just return in a couple months and set a WR through cheating. I was watching the response video and was disappointed that the math wasn't included, I just found out the response paper from an "expert" is also debunked, I really thought dream will regain himself, I … I just want this drama to be over with. MCYTTWT (not just Dream stans) has started using Burner Accounts to harass Creators, Twitter once again brought up dream saying the r word. Or, if Dream sees this post, he's just going to drop these points because assuming Dream is actually gonna try to be good faith in his proper response. Also Question, can I share this post on r/DreamWasTaken? [–]CeruIian 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (2 children), If he really found a statistician at a popular university why would they choose to do it through some sketchy consulting site. There you have it, we’ve just debunked solipsism. That's what I meant by the last data point. However that isn't the case for blaze rods. 14. Then this "expert" claimed he wanted to remain anonymous and will publish his findings through this company, Dream was fine with that. Technically you are correct, in the end it wouldn't really matter. It doesn't change the average value. It’s far more likely that Patriot has been deployed in response to a credible threat from a foreign actor. Dream's manhunts are fun to watch with all the crazy shit he pulls off, and really, it's all about good entertainment. "Organic pesticides are those that are derived from natural sources and processed lightly if at all before use. [–]aRandomCheapPerson 2 points3 points4 points 2 months ago (0 children). I also went down the rabbit hole of their paper. No names of ANYONE at all, not even name of the founder, he is refered to as "founder" on the website, that's it. What Dream has claimed here on reddit (in some posts on his main subreddit and here he commented on the post with the screenshots of his discord messages, his post got downvoted into oblivion) is that he apparently contacted 2 statisticians one of whom was this professor at popular university (he doesn't disclose what uni it was, doubt it was Harvard though and doubt it is an actual professor). and join one of thousands of communities. The only data point you would need to delete is the very last trade of the very last run as I understand it, since that's when we actually stop collecting data. [–]pole_fan 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (0 children). Some redditors with statistics backgrounds have given their 2 cents but same thing I’d like to see some verifiable credentials. How did we get from a ten times increase in the chance for Ender Pearls and no change in the Blaze Rods to a factor of 100? Don't Buy the Debunked Dominion Voting Machine Conspiracy Theory Trump's campaign officials and attorneys are peddling this … I really wanted to believe that Dream didn’t cheat, but at this point he’s just digging himself a deeper hole. And… some facts aren't actually facts! ahh shit, thats so true!! [–]rddsknk89 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children). But then there is Dream's claim where he states that HE contacted the professors himself. He could have just gone out and hired a well known statistician, or hell, a math YouTuber, like 3Blue1Brown or someone, and got this drama over with by giving a clear identity, not some shady man with some unverifiable credentials. The community was banned in June 2020 for violating Reddit rules on harassment and … NoFap started on Reddit in 2011 during an online convo between folks who’d given up masturbation. [+]puffle1878 comment score below threshold-12 points-11 points-10 points 2 months ago* (4 children), today on r /dreamwastaken2: man has no online presence therefore he does not exist, [–]Innomenatus 8 points9 points10 points 2 months ago (0 children). Is he? I read the document as well. ", it's seemingly the same thing but not from the pov of rigorous statistics. Maybe I missed something. It looks more like one of those "scam sites" that offer insurance to law breaking and all that, it's not really scam site because technically they do their job but it's obvious their investigaiton is not completely unbiased since Dream likely paid them couple thousand dollars (as stated on their "shop" page their service costs about 1k, but I thnik Dream didn't mind investing more money into it). And Dream has also said that the hunters aren't allowed to kill him in the initial moments of the game and can just damage him, so they can put on a good show. [–]AwfulGamer456 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children), [–]AntiReligionGuy 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (6 children), he’s just digging himself a deeper hole. Initially created in June 2015 following the announcement of Trump's presidential campaign, the community grew to over 790,000 subscribers who described themselves as "Patriots". 4.6k members in the DreamWasTaken2 community. [–]SpectralDagger 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (5 children). This is a shame. but not "How many total trades will it likely take to get 42 ender pearl trades? [–]SpectralDagger 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (0 children). [–][deleted] 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (0 children), [–]aRandomCheapPerson 1 point2 points3 points 2 months ago (0 children). The design of the website doesn't look very professional, it's pretty much just bunch of fancy stock images slammed together. Dream's Response DEBUNKED (He Lied) Video Discussion. However since Dream did multiple runs, it doesn't really matter that he took a "break" from trading after successes since he would pick up right where he started in the next run. attention dream fans!! #1: Dream fanart by TommyInnit. Dream claims that most runners do run offline and their runs get verified, true, I agree with him on that, that he kinda fucked himslef over by streaming the runs and kinda giving mods this option to check if his results are legit or not. It can also apply to downvoting. 1.1k votes, 32 comments. Pretty likely now that r/DreamWasTaken is going to get banned. He told anchor Matt Lauer that “He’s been a leader far more than our president has been a leader.” Trump’s view seems to be rooted in his innate narcissism. Literally the expeced value just simplifies down to p, meaning there's no actual change in probability. Dream tries to debunk this in the video claiming that he is pretty much just the luckiest of them all. Why? Close. thanks for the help! TL;DR - Dream's "expert" is probably not an expert, or he might be but in this case is biased lawyer of Dream. * Request interpretation of your dreams. ", "Although I have only spent a small amount of time looking at the online discussion of all this, one hypothesis I see that may not be getting enough traction is that the modifications were present but unintentional", [–]Tall-Association3625 8 points9 points10 points 2 months ago (6 children), https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1196452/expected-value-of-the-number-of-flips-until-the-first-head. I am still convinced that Dream cheated, but his stans will now think otherwise because of this video. My suggestion would be to forward this thing to some math youtubers, this is definitely not a case you would need PhD for. I don’t think I understand how 6/1000 becomes 50/1000 through the mechanisms talked about in the Vox article. Why is Dream lying? I think this was just an another attempt by Dream to manipulate his viewers. And showed that the probabilities didn't read align. I mean, it's pretty obvious they play it up for the camera. i still dont know where i stand with all of this, im very confused with this huge influx of information coming from all sides, so im just tryna take everything in slowly! Despite being debunked as a fraud decades ago, some of the ideas in The Protocols have cropped back up in modern conspiracy theory circles. Did he himself even uderstand the report? Binomial distribution can be used only if you have set number of trials. Which is funny because 10 million is still an insane number and still pretty much proves Dream cheated lmfao. Zac Efron’Guardians of the Galaxy 3′ Report Debunked By Director James Gunn James Gunn had to debunk a rumor circulating online that he's currently casting All details on the site celebsbar.com [–]Doctor99268 5 points6 points7 points 2 months ago (3 children). Him cheating in the speedruns makes me question the validity of the manhunts tbh. All the evidence for a fraudulent election has been debunked. If you look at the comments that recently appeared on Photoexcitation you can see bunch of dick pics, owners really give zero fucks as it seems lmao. thank you for pointing that all out! And then he does this comparison of how different it is in Minecraft blocks... well I didn't seem to find this claim anywhere in the report. I just have one more thing to point out that dream did say that the mod team skipped the fact that no mod was loaded(other than fabric) (and that optifine was banned) in the data that dream submitted, so what about that? While I can't comment on too much since I'm not a man expert at all, I think Dream's statement that they were off by 7.49 trillion comes from the 1 in 100 million odds since it you find difference between the two odds presented you get 7.49 trillion. Election 2020. All remaining data points are independent events, so the binomial distribution is more accurate. More like that he is suspicious as FUCK. If he cheats in speedruns, why wouldn't he stage the manhunts? * Keep a dream journal. Real evidence stands up for itself in a court of law. Still if he read at least first couple pages of that report he would see that nobody with brain would take this "expert" seriously. Your thought experiment should be - set a number of trials (let n be 1000) and only after that you will do the throws and see how many times you got a certain number and from the results you will plot a binomial distribution which you will compare to the theoretical model. What Dream has claimed here on reddit (in some posts on his main subreddit and here he commented on the post with the screenshots of his discord messages, his post got downvoted into oblivion) is that he apparently contacted 2 statisticians one of whom was this professor at popular university (he doesn't disclose what uni it was, doubt it was Harvard though and doubt it is an actual … It's pretty much a statement from speedrunning community that if you cheat by editing your drop rates you will be caught. What I would recommend is to look at the graphs of Dream compared to other runners and explain why do their curves follow the expected value function but Dream's doesn't. He argues that each trade and drop isn't an independent event because Dream will stop once he gets enough. Does Dream think we are some degenerates or is he just stupid? Thus, you shouldn't be really using binomial distribution. "orgenotfo" went through more pain than any character in the universe. (Spoilers All) Debunked and Out Dated Theories. Anyone that was bothered to be seriously critical of him should find that this new paper is garbage. A dream that might portray the prosecution of corrupt people by the military. No, I understand that. He may have gotten scammed by whoever he paid to do it. Meanwhile he could have made his pearl luck even higher and just release an offline run which would be accepted without a question. [–]YourSaintOfGamesI believe that Dream is guilty 7 points8 points9 points 2 months ago (9 children), I'm collecting everything that debunks dream's PDF and video so that I can share it on r/DreamWasTaken, [–]icringealot_ 7 points8 points9 points 2 months ago (0 children), You might like this then: https://www.reddit.com/r/statistics/comments/kiqosv/d_accused_minecraft_speedrunner_who_was_caught/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf, [–]Party_Operation7316[S] 2 points3 points4 points 2 months ago (2 children), [–]YourSaintOfGamesI believe that Dream is guilty 5 points6 points7 points 2 months ago (1 child), I'm gonna post all of it on r/DreamWasTaken let's see how many minutes until ban, [–]sneakpeekbot 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children). [–]RokiSmoki99 5 points6 points7 points 2 months ago (2 children), [–]YourSaintOfGamesI believe that Dream is guilty 6 points7 points8 points 2 months ago (1 child), [–]wombo23 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children), [–]YourSaintOfGamesI believe that Dream is guilty 9 points10 points11 points 2 months ago (11 children). upvote please, Let's see how long it'll take for me to get banned. Sure, I would post it there, but they hate me over there so go ahead lol. [–]CeruIian 2 points3 points4 points 2 months ago (4 children). You should use negative binomial and then there is no reason to account for any sort of bias whatsoever. Most likely because Dream didn't cheat prior to that and thus had "average" luck like Illumina or other runners. I was reading someone else's analysis of this report in the r/statistics subreddit and he mentioned that this would only be the case if we were watching a single run. That's a fair point. It's probably they can't be bothered looking into some children's block game drama. My question is on those who have read the books longer and have seen some theories come and go. To be fair the results you would get wouldn't be much different it would still be within "impossible" but this wouldn't allow the fraud astrostatistician to throw some questionable models at you which "account for stopping rule". Geoff Keighley: “What’s your dream studio / franchise collaboration you hope to see one day?“ Bruce Stahley: “None. Current events are CRAZY, so let’s science the crap outta stuff, LIVE. Basically expressing a biased opinion that bleeds from one sub to another. And theoretically it could've been WR run as well, if you watch the footage you can see that it was one of the fastest nether escapes but his eye of ender broke and made it 19 min run (meanwhile if his eye didn't break it could have been sub 15, depending on dragon perching and other stuff). Equally not shocking is the fact that Trump took action after the discovery of the first case of Coronavirus, while Obama waited until 1-thousand cases of Swine Flu were confirmed before taking action.Sigh, if only the left held Obama to * Ask questions and learn about dreams. © 2021 reddit inc. All rights reserved. It's not even true though. When I went on their website to check for possible members, I found nothing. this was all about a 15th place run??? [–]Party_Operation7316[S] 5 points6 points7 points 2 months ago (10 children). Morocco has called on Algeria to assume its responsibility in the Western Sahara issue and to engage in the UN-led political process. and join one of thousands of communities. The thing is if some actual math youtuber catches up on this story and debunks that crap paper that Dream has shared then he is probably in big trouble and it will just show that he 1) likely cheated, 2) lied about it, 3) hired an anonymous "expert" to lie some more and present some flawed models 4) has no more credibility and cannot be trusted and people can start questioning his other runs or videos. Dream's Response DEBUNKED (He Lied) youtu.be/UB2lwS... Video Discussion. One requirement to be precise - fixed number of trials. But the "expert" doesn't seem to know the proper statistics either because nowhere in the report he mentions that the requirements for binomial distribution are not met. I would be inclined to believe Dream if he said who the statistician was, but now that it seems like they didn’t know what they were doing when writing the report, or were at least extremely biased, it doesn’t help him whatsoever. Because that's how odds work right? [–]Insanite_ 3 points4 points5 points 2 months ago (3 children), I think that the claim made by Dream where the odds of MST were wrong by 7.49999 trillion is because if you deduct 7.5 trillion by 7.49999 trillion, you get 10 million (which is the odds that were presented in the .pdf file by the astrophysicist; 1 in 10 million), [–]Do_You_Have_Phones 2 points3 points4 points 2 months ago (1 child). The only real stopping error here would be at the very end of the very last run, which was accounted for in the original paper. That wouldn't be out of the question. Ooh. [–]RokiSmoki99 11 points12 points13 points 2 months ago (1 child), People from X subreddit going to Y subrredit to donvote/spam comments, [–]Anomandaris_Irake123 20 points21 points22 points 2 months ago (0 children). The paper says that removing the last data point as a way to account for the stopping effect results in a ten times increase in the resulting probability of Ender Pearl drops. this user is trying to sell fake dream merch. What we really need is some independent math youtuber who will draw some sensible conclusion. The term “NoFap” (now a trademarked name … Dream should really just move on from this. The only thing Dream really gained from the video was possibly a bit more respect for apologizing for his past responses and telling his fans to stop the harassment (although he may have lost on that front for trying to push such bad math, but I’d be willing to believe that he was scammed and didn’t realize how bad it was). Whether he's right or not, I don't know or care. * Connect with a community of dream enthusiasts. Common myths and misconceptions are all around us. I think people like Mathologer, Flammable Maths and others wouldn't mind the exposure and I doubt their stance would be biased in any way or another. [–]aRandomCheapPerson 0 points1 point2 points 2 months ago (0 children). Log In Sign Up. I would've made this into a video, but I'm way too lazy to and tbh it's easier to just rant on reddit lol, even if it's less attractive. But an actual stat major would notice such thing (ofc if he is familiar with the game mechanics and knows how piglin trading works and so on).
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